Is Air Conditioning Heating Up the Planet?

Air conditioning is a double-edged sword. As temperatures rise worldwide, more people rely on air conditioners to stay cool and comfortable. In some places, they have become a necessity. Combined with rising incomes, this is driving up AC sales.

‍

But the air conditioners themselves produce heat and release greenhouse gases, aggravating the problem of the climate crisis and global warming.

‍

Rising Global Demand for Air Conditioning

‍

As of 2024, there were around 2 billion AC units in the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2050, they will nearly triple to over 5.5 billion units.

‍

The IEA also estimated that in 2022, “space cooling” (which includes fans, but mostly air conditioning) consumed around 2,100 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. Global electricity use that year was around 29,000 TWh, meaning space cooling accounted for roughly 7% of the world’s electricity.

‍

Some of this electricity likely comes from fossil fuels. The IEA estimates that electricity use for space cooling produced around 1 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2022, which is about 2.7% of total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry.

‍

This does not include emissions from the refrigerants used in AC units.

‍

Some commonly used refrigerants have a high global warming potential (GWP), and when they escape into the atmosphere, they contribute to climate change.

‍

If we include these emissions, researchers estimate an additional 720 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq), bringing total emissions to 1,750 tCO2eq — about 3.2% of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.

‍

Limiting The Energy Demand from Air Conditioning

‍

In theory, if the number of AC units triples by 2050, their energy demand would triple too, unless units become more efficient. The IEA estimates that if the average efficiency of AC units sold were doubled, the additional energy demand could be reduced by 45%. In that scenario, electricity use would roughly double, not triple, even if the number of AC units triples by 2050.

‍

But what stops people from buying more efficient units? Well, there’s high upfront cost, lack of a consistent efficiency labeling system, and absence of incentives like lower taxes on more efficient units

‍

And of course, air conditioning has to be supplemented by architectural and design solutions such as trees and plantations across streets and painting roofs and other materials white to reflect sunlight. These are necessary, especially for those who work outdoors and people who can’t afford ACs, and they would take off some of the load from the ACs.

‍